SPX 500

The fear on the long end of the Treasury curve has taken a step back even as two-year notes saw a massive jump in yield last week. But looking at stocks rallies appear set for resumption with the bull flag in the S&P 500 giving way to an early-week breakout.

The response to the rate hike was a strong Thursday outing but ever since Kevin Warsh took over atop the Fed there’s been a shift in equity markets.

A hawkish Fed knocked equities and gold lower for only a few hours, and both recovered their losses before the session was out.

The Fed was quite hawkish yesterday and we saw what kind of a reaction it triggered in the FX and equity markets. Yet despite those initial falls, index futures have already recovered to around their pre-FOMC levels at the time of writing today. The resilience of the stock market continues to surprise.

It’s a delicate balancing act for Kevin Warsh at today’s FOMC meeting where the bank is highly expected to raise rates for the first time in three years. The Nasdaq 100, meanwhile, hasn’t set a fresh high since the day before his first press conference.

It’s a big week ahead with a widely expected FOMC rate hike followed by a Bank of Japan rate decision. But perhaps more pressing are moves showing in US Treasuries and Oil and what that might entail for the macro landscape.

A hawkish Fed and 10-Year Notes on the verge of a push above 5%, yet stocks have so far shrugged off that fear. But can it continue?

U.S. stocks are rising on Friday, taking the August CPI inflation data in their stride, even as expectations for a Fed rate hike next week rise to 90%.

US equity index futures surrendered an earlier midday bounce in London, as investors struggled to look past an increasingly uncomfortable macro backdrop. Higher oil prices and rising government bond yields are combining to put renewed pressure on risk assets, while the absence of a clear catalyst for improvement makes it difficult to see why investors would materially increase equity exposure at current levels.

U.S. stocks are pointing to a mixed open after the Labor Day long weekend as investors return to fresh concerns over oil prices and inflation risks ahead of the FOMC rate decision next week.

The S&P 500 fell on Friday to post a flat close on the week. Rising yields and elevated oil prices reminded investors that the macro backdrop is turning challenging. Friday’s US jobs report raised the pressure on the Fed to hike as the report was considerably stronger than expected. All the attention will be on inflation data in this shortened week for US investors, plus the usual suspects of oil and bond yields, ahead of the FOMC rate decision in the following week.

U.S. stocks are heading for a modestly higher open after Fed Governor Christopher Waller's words calmed inflation fears ahead of today's nonfarm payroll report.