Stay in step with market opportunities and get insights, actionable trade ideas and dedicated support.
Donald Trump’s speech at the UN seems to have poured cold waters on any hopes of a deal. Crude oil, the US dollar and bond yields all bounced back from their lows, causing fresh pressure on foreign currencies, European indices and to a lesser degree precious metals.
Despite mounting geopolitical risks, crude oil prices have declined more than 10% from their monthly highs. Combined with overbought momentum readings on the DXY and dollar pairs, this increases the risk of a near-term reversal.
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Despite escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and continuing tensions between the United States and Iran, crude oil prices are now facing major resistance that must be overcome before another bullish rally can be confirmed.
Heading into the week ahead, the macro calendar is quieter. But for as long oil remains supported, the US dollar forecast will remain bullish. Not only will oil prices be important for determining the direction for the dollar and USD/JPY, but bond yields too, and by extension, risk appetite.
Assuming the Fed delivers the expected hike, traders will want to know WHAT could prompt another hike, WHY they hiked this time, and HOW to interpret the dot plot.
The dollar’s recent rebound as a result of rising bond yields and energy prices has been a key theme in the markets, which is helping to drive major FX pairs, gold, silver and copper all lower, while also weighing on stock markets. Among the major FX, the euro has been held back further by continued gains in oil prices while a closely-watched German sentiment survey today also weighed on the single currency.
Gold has fallen relatively sharply in the first half of today’s session. Hardly a surprise, truth be told. The ongoing macro backdrop is bearish for gold and risk assets in general. Rising oil prices are continuing to pile pressure on government bonds, causing their yields to increase. Rising yields, in turn, increase the opportunity cost of holding assets that pay zero interest, not to mention storage and insurance costs.
USD/JPY, Nasdaq Outlook: Rate hikes, AI-related concerns and rising crude oil prices are among the major headlines limiting risk appetite this week while supporting the U.S. dollar and USD/JPY.
The EUR/USD has taken a drop today with the pair coming under pressure from rising energy prices and a rebounding US dollar ahead of the FOMC rate decision, where a hike is all but priced in now. We have a few other central bank meetings and some important data to look forward to as well. For now, all the focus is on energy prices which have rebounded after nothing important happened to de-escalate the situation at the weekend.
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: BRICS Summit Calls for Maximum Restraint as the Energy Crisis Reaches Critical Economic Tipping Points
The EUR/USD edged lower this morning, down for the second day, ahead of the release of US CPI. The pair has been consolidating in a tight range, and yesterday’s hawkish rate hike from the ECB failed to deliver the breakout many traders were hoping to get. With the US dollar finding renewed support in recent days, the risk to the near-term EUR/USD forecast is tilted to the downside.
US equity index futures surrendered an earlier midday bounce in London, as investors struggled to look past an increasingly uncomfortable macro backdrop. Higher oil prices and rising government bond yields are combining to put renewed pressure on risk assets, while the absence of a clear catalyst for improvement makes it difficult to see why investors would materially increase equity exposure at current levels.
Bond yields continue to push higher alongside oil, while the dollar is beginning to regain some ground ahead of the latest inflation data. The market appears increasingly willing to put the so-called “dollar debasement” trade to one side, allowing the greenback to respond more conventionally to higher yields, firmer oil prices and incoming economic data.
