By: Leonel Mattos, Market Intelligence Analyst • BRAZIL PRS
USDBRL and Dollar Index (points)
USDBRL variations | Daily: -0.18% | Weekly: +0.32% | Monthly: -0.77% | Yearly: -6.12% | In 12 months: -3.02%
Dollar index variations | Daily: -0.05% | Weekly: +1.08% | Monthly: +0.79% | Yearly: +1.91% | In 12 months: +3.35%
Investors should react to the presidential election intention polls, calibrating their expectations for the election results and economic policy management over the next four years.
Why this matters: A tight electoral race could reduce predictability regarding Brazilian economic policies for the next four years, increasing the perception of risks for domestic assets, amplifying volatility, and harming the performance of the Brazilian real.
Recent polls: Last Thursday (17), Datafolha revealed that intentions to vote for president in a potential second round remained stable, with 46% of the intentions for Lula and 44% for Flavio Bolsonaro.
Tight elections: Despite the divergence in trends indicated by the polls, the results suggest a highly competitive race, with no statistically significant advantage for either candidate.
US: History and expectation for interest rates – updated on September 18, 2026
Expectation for the US interest rate at the end of 2026 (% p.a.)
Investors should also react to the expectation of higher interest rates for longer in the United States, after the Federal Reserve (Fed) suggested last week a firmer monetary tightening process.
Why this matters: The expectation of higher interest rates for longer in the US should increase yields on US Treasuries and favor the attraction of foreign capital to the country, strengthening the dollar globally.
FOMC raises rates: Last week, the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised US interest rates to the range between 3.75% and 4.00% p.a. to “support a quicker return [of inflation] to the 2% [annual] target.”
Firm stance against inflation: The following factors contributed to this perception of firmness:
Median of FOMC members' projections for US interest rates at the end of each year (% p.a.)
Less transparent Fed: The speeches of other FOMC members gain importance due to Kevin Warsh's cryptic communication style, as they provide analyses and discussions about the economic outlook that the Fed Chairman refuses to address.
Brazil: History and expectation for interest rates – Focus bulletin of September 11, 2026
Additionally, investors should react to the release of documents and indicators that could influence expectations for the management of monetary policy in Brazil.
Why this matters: The reports should indicate higher inflationary risks, which may reduce bets on new Selic rate cuts, favor domestic bond yields, and strengthen the BRL.
Neutral tone: Copom maintained its neutral tone in the statement issued after its rate decision, emphasizing serenity and caution in monetary policy management while monitoring the inflationary trajectory in the country.
Risk balance: Copom acknowledged a slowdown in inflation and economic activity, although the latter remains resilient while the labor market remains strong.
IPCA-15: In the economic indicator agenda, investors should monitor the September IPCA-15 reading, which may reflect the reversal of some elements that favored the deflation recorded in the previous month.
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Dollar to reflect Brazilian electoral scenario, Copom minutes, RPM, IPCA-15, and expectations of higher interest rates in the US
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