
Yen Bulls Bruised by BOJ, But Intervention Could Prove Them Right
Yen bulls were caught out by the BOJ, but record futures longs and rising intervention risk could yet prove their positioning well timed.
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Yen bulls were caught out by the BOJ, but record futures longs and rising intervention risk could yet prove their positioning well timed.

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Yen bears finally flip net long as US dollar exposure falls sharply, while CAD shorts continue to unwind ahead of major central bank meetings.

Speculators have staged one of the largest yen positioning reversals on record, with past episodes often followed by further USD/JPY weakness.

Yen shorts jumped ahead of a sharp reversal, while US dollar longs fell for a fifth week and euro shorts eased further.

US dollar longs held firm into Jackson Hole, while euro, yen and commodity FX positioning diverged ahead of ISM and NFP.

USD weakness, rising CAD demand and renewed JPY shorts shape this week’s COT report ahead of Jackson Hole.

USD longs remain stretched while yen bears retreat for a second week following joint intervention, according to the latest COT report.

US dollar futures longs plunged while yen shorts were slashed, with major shifts also seen in euro, sterling and commodity currency positioning.

US dollar positioning shows signs of peaking as sterling shorts unwind and commodity-linked currencies rally despite bearish futures positioning.
Commodity currencies continued to feel the heat of the Trump trade, while asset managers stepped away from stocks in a month usually associated with strong gains. Gold seems likely to remain supported in the current environment, but for now we seem to be in a holding pattern waiting for fresh catalysts to kick off 2025.