Arlan Suderman on What a Record Harvest Means for Fuel Demand
In Episode 13 of Focus on Fuels, StoneX’s Alex Hodes and Trevor McClanahan brought in Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, to help unpack what a massive harvest could mean for diesel, propane, and fuel buyers across the Midwest.
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Key Takeaways:
- Corn and soybeans are on track for a record harvest, with wheat also strong
- China’s retreat from U.S. soybeans reshapes grain flow and storage dynamics
- Propane demand may rise if fall weather turns cold or disease pressures mount
Diesel Use Will Rise with Rising Crop Yields
Suderman said this fall’s harvest could be one of the largest on record. Corn and soybeans are up, and wheat is also strong. That means more combines, more trucks, and more diesel. The western Corn Belt – especially the Dakotas and Minnesota – is leading. But the east is trailing, which flips the usual pattern and creates storage problems in the northwest. That, in turn, means more hauling.
China’s Pullback Adds to the Pileup
Soybean exports are down. China hasn’t booked any new U.S. soybeans, and Brazil is meeting more of its demand. With no trade deal in place, soybeans are going into storage. Rail bids in the northwest have dried up, which lowers rail fuel demand. But that grain still has to move, and it’s now heading south and east by truck.
Propane Outlook Depends on Weather
Propane demand for crop drying could swing either way. If the fall is warm, farmers might let crops dry in the field. But if disease weakens corn stalks, they’ll harvest early to avoid loss, and that means more drying and more propane. “The farmer’s going to be trying to reduce his costs,” Suderman said, especially with today’s low prices.
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---Written by: Andrew Catsimanes, Copywriter
---Experts: Alex Hodes, Director of Energy Market Strategy and Trevor McClanahan, Energy Risk Manager
---Experts: Guest: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
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