By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
Weather remains the swing factor for soybean balances when global supply is already ample and demand growth depends on policy support. La Niña typically threatens southern Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay with periods of dryness that can hurt yields. Early guidance suggests this episode could be short lived, lowering the odds of widespread losses while keeping localized risk elevated. Traders should frame risk around sensitive states and timing rather than assume a uniform shock.
Ana Luiza Lodi, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Specialist, analyzes how La Niña shapes regional yield patterns, export timing, and market resilience across South America.
La Niña phases can shift quickly from benign to disruptive, so producers and traders need scenario based plans. As Lodi notes, “Planning is always a concern for the crops here in the Brazilian South American January”, reflecting the operational timing risk during critical growth windows. Even if guidance leans short lived, intra season dryness can dent yields and alter export rhythm. The market impact may show up as basis moves and calendar spreads before headline price trends fully adjust.
Risk concentration in southern Brazil makes localized monitoring decisive for procurement and hedging decisions. Lodi emphasizes that La Niña “can bring dry weather to south in areas here to southern Brazil, Argentina, to Paraguay”, which aligns with historical patterns. Despite that concern, she adds that “it will be short lived”, tempering the probability of widespread losses. This balance explains why Brazil can still act as a stabilizer even when weather risk headlines rise.
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Download Now--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX TV
--- Expert: Ana Luiza Lodi, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Specialist
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Dry soil is slowing winter wheat planting in Russia and Ukraine, with a third of Ukraine's area in moisture deficit. Lost export revenue and costly diesel add a second risk to the size of the next Black Sea wheat crop.
September 23 – The Nasdaq hit another fresh all-time high yesterday, with the S&P 500 close to doing so as well, though stock futures are pointing to a quietly lower start to today’s session after surging higher to start the week as optimism surrounding this week’s various diplomatic pushes abounds. That optimism continues to be reflected in the VIX, continuing to hang around roughly three-week lows, trading at 14.3 this morning. The dollar is surging higher, adding to the week’s gains, as it nears the 101 mark for the first time in nearly two months. Treasury yields are off to a higher start, with 2-year yields back up to 4.80%, 10-year yields at 4.99%, and 30-year yields just above 5.32%. Crude oil prices are looking to hold their ground after a steady decline since late last week, with nearby WTI up 1.3% to trade near $91 and nearby Brent up 1.4% to trade near $100.65 at the time of writing. The ags are mostly lower to start the day, likely influenced in part by managed money selling off some existing length amid hopes for improvement regarding commodity flow through the Black Sea as part of this week’s diplomacy blitz.
September 22 – The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both closed within 1% of their all-time highs yesterday, with stock futures pointing to a quietly higher open at the time of writing. Diplomacy continues to be the theme of the week, with markets pricing in optimism, particularly in the tech sector following encouraging results from the weekend’s meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. It’s also worth noting that Bessent yesterday announced the two sides would be meeting again to discuss AI safety and communication protocols in Shenzen, China in about two months, another potential sign of cooperation instead of escalation. The VIX continues to reflect optimism regarding this week’s various diplomatic pushes as it hovers near its lowest level since early September, starting the day trading just below the 14.7 mark. The dollar is sitting just above unchanged, near 100.46 at the time of writing, touching a fresh two-month high earlier this morning. Treasury yields are quietly lower to start the day, also helping bring some calm to Wall Street, with 2-year yields at 4.747%, 10-year yields at 4.949%, and 30-year yields at 5.279%. Crude oil prices continue their push lower, with nearby WTI down another 1.8% to trade near $90.30 and nearby Brent down 1.6% to trade near $98.70, both roughly two-week lows. The ags are looking at a turnaround Tuesday to kick off the session with most of the complex in the red at the break, led down by the wheat complex. Improving forecasts for planting conditions for the U.S. winter wheat crop are likely having some influence, but I’d also point out the signs of potential increasing U.S. pressure on Ukraine, which we’ll dive into in more depth below, possibly spooking out some managed money length.
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